What is important nowadays in the US and the World Markets
By Mike Dolan, editor-in-large, financial sector and financial markets
While the Federal Reserve is taking a ragged turn in the face of another Wall Street, the European Central Bank seems to reduce the loan interest again – or at least that is what markets expect.
In today’s column I am in all details and explain why the bond market does not seem to worry too much about our long -term inflation. The answer may not all be good news.
I will be free tomorrow, because the US stock market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, and then I will be on vacation next week. But ‘Morning Bid’ comes back on Tuesday, with all the coverage of the markets that you are looking for from my Reuters colleagues.
Now on the market news.
Today’s market
* European shares were mixed on Thursday when investors dissected the business gains to gauge the consequences of the erratic trade policy of US President Donald Trump, awaiting the policy decision of the European Central Bank later in the day.
* Japan is “deeply worried” about the global economic fall -out of the trading rates of US President Donald Trump, said Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Thursday in the strongest government warning, while the two nations started commercial conversations.
* The wish of US President Donald Trump to a stronger yen against the dollar is almost certain to be in trade negotiations with Japan, but analysts say that any attempt to shift the currency can be risks for both parties.
* The American Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the FED would wait for more information about the direction of the economy before the interest rates were changed, but warned that President Donald Trump’s tariff was the risk of pushing the inflation and employment further from the goals of the central bank.
* Plans for an American company have been seized by the Kremlin and under state control placed to be used to supply food to the Russian army, a document seen by Reuters, it turned out that Moscow’s warming relations possibly threatened with the US
ECB set to convenience as Fed supplies Hawkish Twist
The last trading day of a holiday forest week before the American markets is seeing stock futures that reclaim some of the steep losses of Wednesday -losing losses on Wednesday. An income from Taiwan’s TSMC, and the unchanged income growth prospects, helped the chip ship, which had walked again yesterday, because new license costs were connected to the US-China Trade Spont Sank Nvidia shares with almost 7%.
But if investors expected the Fed to save the market, chairman Jay Powell made it clear that this did not happen quickly.
Powell spoke late yesterday in Chicago, it seemed to suggest that the central bank would be on hold for a longer period to stamp the inflation expectations.
“Rates are most likely at least a temporary increase in inflation,” he said. “The inflatory effects can also be more persistent.”
Although Powell’s determination to hold the line did not do much to compensate for a 2%-plus decrease in the S&P 500, the Treasury yields fell back as the market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations almost 2%anchored.
In the meantime, the Bank of Canada also surprised some by opposing a new rate reduction on Wednesday, perhaps aware of the upcoming Canadian elections. With this North -American tariff in the background, the ECB is now on the deck.
The money markets are priced for another quarter of the ECB rate today to 2.25%, because the euro is almost three years high compared to the ailing dollar in the midst of increased trade war uncertainty and the real effective exchange rate index of the euro is at a high point of 10 years.
The euro ebste a touch for the decision, German Bund yields pushed higher and euro -sharing benchmarks were somewhat red. A rare income mass of luxury brand Hermes damped the mood.
Back on Wall Street, investors are waiting for a new heavy release of homes and unemployed data and profit updates, including Netflix, on Thursday. March Retail and Industrial Figures On Wednesday, only small mistakes showed the most sensitive measurements.
In the field of Trade War, attention is paid to Washington’s negotiations with the Japanese delegation. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni also meets President Donald Trump on Thursday.
Finally, see my column today, where I am looking at how the hard neuse attitude of the Fed in the light of tariff uncertainty and market volatility seems to win the battle to keep long -term inflation expectations anchored.
Graph of the day
While the trade war in the US and China escalates, everyone is watching China’s possession of the US government debt as a HAVIK, especially after a serious disruption in the Treasury markets last week. Treasury data about foreign companies of American debts released on Wednesday are only before February – before the tariff spiral really started. But the figures showed Holdings by Chinese entities that were actually checked in the month, although that is probably only part of the photo.
China had $ 784.3 billion, an increase of $ 760.8 billion, and Japanese investors also increased their fate. There is a suspicion that many Chinese companies are being held in Proxy in Europe, probably imprisoned as Belgian companies where the Euroclear Clearing House is located. That said, in February also in the Belgium-Founded Holdings also increased by almost $ 20 billion. So if China has developed treasuries lately, we will have to wait for further hard data to find out.
Today’s events to watch
* Policy decision of the European Central Bank, with press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde
* US March Housing Starts/Permits, weekly unemployed claims, Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s April Business Survey
* Governor of the Federal Reserve Board Michael Barr speaks
* International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks before IMF/Wereldbank Spring Meeting
* Minister of Japan Economy Ryosei Akazawa meets the American Minister of Finance Scott Bessent in Washington. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meets US President Donald Trump in Washington
* American business profit: Netflix, American Express, State Street, Blackstone, Charles Schwab, Snap-on, Fifth Third Bancorp, Dr. ir. Horton, Keycorp, Huntington Banchares, Marsh & McLennan, UnitedHealth, Truist Financial, Regions Financial etc.
* US Treasury sells 5-year inflation protected effects
The expression of opinions are that of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, who, under the trust principles, are committed to integrity, independence and freedom of bias.
(By Mike Dolan; adaptation by Anna Szymanski)
