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The view from the top doesn’t look very good.
Clouds and Vertigo have tempered the new all-time highlights of the S&P 500 in the form of severe tariff threats, brewing dissatisfaction of trading partners and political allies, and a growing fear that the herac celleration of the inflation-just hardly under control all but gets worse.
Investors are still driving at the momentum of the Trump -Hobbel and the continuous growth of business profits. The new heights and swelling portfolios of the S&P can confirm that. But the stock diagrams also seem to mask the fear of the present moment, so that the consumer sentiment falls to a low -seven -month low.
Why does it feel like a storm is coming despite the anxiety meter of the market, the CBOE Volatility Index, which shows quiet seas?
Maybe it’s because things … look different. As Josh Schafer wrote yesterday, European shares beat US shares. People are especially enthusiastic about gold. And the foaming meme supply and crypto enthusiasm are blurred. Even the beautiful seven are not very beautiful, with meta platforms (meta) that break away. To be clear, these are not bad things. But they contribute to an unfamiliarity, a cousin of fear brewed.
“Shorter market and economic expectations, anxiety and doubt index and inflation all moved in a negative direction by Magnitudes that have not been seen since 2022,” wrote Andy Reed, head of Vanguard’s head of investors, on Wednesday in a note on Vanguard’s Investor Sentiment Survey, Wijzend Falling expectations for GDP and the stock market. “It looks like 2022 again, but this time is different.”
The elephant in the room is of course the inflation – the figure behind both the bad consumer sentiment numbers and some of the recent movements of the market. And they all come back to the biggest Gop -Olifant of all, President Trump.
The last rates, announced earlier this week, were new taxes at 25% on imported cars and similar tasks on medicines and semiconductors. They would only come into effect later in the year and give time to foreign companies to bring investments and activities to the American coasts. At least, Trump says that things can unfold for those transactional staggered entities that want to avoid the tasks.
But even the threats of rates are important: take a look at Houtfutures, despite the Canadian postponement.
