The Big 12 tournament: a championship through Houston is running? Or can Texas Tech challenge the cougars?
For months the Big 12 has been a glove, a test of endurance, depth and determination. While teams descend on Kansas City for the conference tournament, one question arises: can someone stop Houston?
The Kelvin Sampson team arrives as the clear favorite, a program built on defense, discipline and dominance. But March is unpredictable. And in a conference full of fights tested contenders, the road to a title is rarely flexible.
This is something to watch while the best teams in Big 12 take the floor in T-Mobile Center.
Houston: The team to beat
Few teams in the country, let alone the Big 12, have been just as unwavering as Houston.
The Cougars ended the regular season on a 10-game extraction streak, who nip opponents with one of the best defenses in the country. No team broke 65 points against them during that piece. LJ Cryer has been an attacking force, but Houston’s success is based on a dedication to non -repellent defensive pressure and rebound.
Since the end of November they have only lost once. That defeat? A 75-73 Overtime thriller at Texas Tech-a game in which Houston had the chance to win in the last seconds.
Now, as the number 1 seed of the tournament, the cougars have the double bye and are positioned to make a statement before the NCAA tournament starts. But will they complete the run, or will someone get up to challenge them?
The big moment of Iowa State and the collapse of Kansas
The State Iowa once looked like a legitimate Big 12 -member, which is as high as number 2 in the national ranking. However, injuries and illness have taken their toll, leading to three losses in their last five games. If they make a run, they must find the defensive toughness that made them so dangerous in the season.
And then there is Kansas.
The preseason No. 1 team in the country has been unraveled. The Jayhawks lost seven of their last 13 games and suffered one of the worst losses of the Bill Self-era, a stunning eruption of 30 points at Byu.
Kansas is usually a dominant force in this tournament and plays for a pro-Ku-MEFT in Kansas City. But now? They don’t look like a team that can make a deep run. If there is hope for a change, it must start this week.
2025 Big 12 Tournament Futures Odds
- Houston Cougars -130
- Texas Tech Red Raiders +400
- Arizona Wildcats +800
- Iowa State Cyclones +800
- Brigham Young Cougars +1000
- Kansas Jayhawks +1200
- Baylor Bears +4000
- West Virginia Mountainers +6000
- Cincinnati Bearcats +20000
- Central Florida Knights +25000
- Kansas State Wildcats +25000
- Texas Christian Horned Frogs +25000
- Utah utes +25000
- Arizona State Sun Devils +30000
- Oklahoma State Cowboys +30000
- Colorado Buffaloes +50000
2025 Big 12 Tournament -Scheme
First round (Tuesday, March 11)
Game 1: (13) Cincinnati (17-14, 7-13) versus (12) Oklahoma State (15-16, 7-13), 12:30
The cowboys won the only meeting of the couple; 78-67 in still water on 3/8.
Game 2: (16) Colorado (12-19, 3-17) vs. (9) TCU (16-15, 9-11), 3*
The season series was a home split: Horned Frogs 68-57 on 2/2 and Buffaloes 76-56 on 3/8.
Game 3: (15) is Arizona (13-18, 4-16) versus (10) Kansas State (15-16, 9-11), 7
The season series was a road split: Wildcats 71-70 on 2/4 and Sun Devils 66-54 on 2/23.
Game 4: (14) UCF (16-15, 7-13) versus (11) Utah (16-15, 8-12), 9: 30*
The knights won the only meeting of the couple; 76-72 in Orlando on 2/23.
Second round (Wednesday, March 12)
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. (5) Iowa State (23-8, 13-7), 12:30 (ESPN or ESPN2)
Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. (8) West Virginia (19-12, 10-10), 3* (ESPN+ ($))
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. (7) Baylor (18-13, 10-10), 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. (6) Kansas (20-11, 11-9), 9: 30* (ESPN2 or ESPNU)
Quarterfinals (Thursday March 13)
ESPN or ESPN2 will broadcast all four games.
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. (4) Byu (23-8, 14-6), 12:30
Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. (1) Houston (27-4, 19-1), 3*
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. (2) Texas Tech (24-7, 15-5), 7
Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. (3) Arizona (20-11, 14-6), 9: 30*
Semi -finals (VR, March 14)
ESPN2 will broadcast both games.
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 Winner, 7
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner, 9:30*
Championship (Sat., March 15)
Game 15: Semi -final winners, 6 (ESPN)
Expertkick: Texas Tech +400
If there is one team that has already cracked the code, it is Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders defeated Houston in their first matchup – and did this under extraordinary circumstances. They played almost the entire game without their best player, JT Toppin, and without their head coach, Grant McCasland, both of which were cast out in the first five minutes. Despite those obstacles, Tech hit 12 three-pointers, seven more than Houston, and the cougars handed their only loss in two months.
Houston got revenge in the Rematch and won 69-61 in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders missed the chance McMillian, their second leading scorer and best shooter.
And if there is one thing that Texas Tech has proven this season, it is that they live and die through the three. They are in third place in BIG 12 in three-point shooting and first in three-point defense, by Kenpom. When the recordings fall, they are a nightmare – matchup for every opponent – including Houston.
With a favorable road to the title game, Texas Tech Houston does not have to see a potential championship shows. Their opening matchup is against Kansas State, Arizona State of Baylor – teams that they have already defeated this season. If they arrive there, could they do it again?
The prediction: a collision course for the title?
Houston has the statistics, the defense and the CV. But history shows that the last three Big 12 champions in the regular season have not won the title of the tournament.
Texas Tech is the only team that has already defeated the cougars, and they are perhaps the best gamble to do it again.
Their ability to control the three-point line-so on as defensive-to-it-all gives them a legitimate shot. They have won seven quad 1 games, have the second highest scoring margin in Big 12 game and were built for a deep run in March.
And if they reach the final of Sunday, don’t be surprised if Texas Tech is the last team that is in Kansas City.
