Few would have chosen the Houston Rockets to be the second seed for the coming West Playoff fights.
In fact, there are not many that the rockets would have chosen to belong to one of the top six in the conference.
The reality is that Houston is 49-27 of the season and looks like one of the deepest squadrons in the entire competition. This is a team that has won 12 of the last 14 games and peaks at the right time.
IME Udoka has built an identity of physicality and toughness that moan opponents when they see the rockets on the schedule and hurt at the end of the game, regardless of the result.
If you have defenders such as Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, Fred Vanvleet and Tari Eason, you will certainly cause nightmares and bruises to the same extent. Jabari Smith is also no one to sneeze on that side of the ball.
Yes, there are offensive worries, but Alps Sengun became an All-Star this season, while Jalen Green found the way to a greater consistency. With a defense as stifling as Houston’s, there is enough attack on board to cross the line. It has happened often enough to win 49 out of 76 games so far.
They also arrived at the semi -final of the NBA Cup and defeated the Golden State Warriors in an exciting quarterfinals before they fell short against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Okay, so we know who these rockets are on the surface. Let’s see a deeper what that tells us about who they will be in the play -offs.
During their 7-game extraction streak, the rockets are in 2nd place in offensive rating (122.1), 4th in defensive rating (107.5) and 1st in net rating (14.6). 🚀 pic.twitter.com/Cy6MAWOG9L
– NBA (@NBA) March 19, 2025
How real is the defense?
Houston is in third place in defensive rating this season, only behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic.
What tells us more about the rockets is that they are in seventh place in defensive rating when making top 10 violations. Still very good, but not entirely in that elite category. In the west they are left with the Los Angeles Clippers, La Lakers, Warriors and Thunder.
There are reasons for that. Firstly, they are polluting more – or are at least called for more errors. The effective field target percentage that they allow also increases from a total speed of 52.7 percent to 55.9 percent. Simply put, good violations are generally better at taking good photos and making them. They are generally also more skilled in achieving the free throw line for some simple.
Which west opponents are in the top 10 attacking? Oklahoma City, the Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves. There is a small chance that the rockets will match the Grizzlies in the first round, but a large one who is ultimately the wolves.
That would be suboptimal. The season series ended 2-2, but between size and physicality the wolves can bring and a real closer to Anthony Edwards, this would be a very difficult play-off matchup for the rockets.
Is the offensive process problematic?
Let’s start by acknowledging that the rockets actually have the ninth best offensive rating in the competition. More information about their method and it is fair to wonder if it will actually be sustainable in the play -offs.
That high offensive efficiency is on a pillar of attacking rebound, an area where they are first in the competition. The rockets are in 25th place in effective field target percentage. They miss a lot of shots and they go behind them behind the glass. What happens when a team meets their physicality and can keep them off the glass?
Again, Minnesota, such as Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Edwards, Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels will be more than that challenge.
As we saw against the Lakers and at different points of the season, the late game attack is a problem. Houston is in 19th place in the offensive rating in the coupling (defined as matches within five points or less with five minutes to go). As a result, the team has a negative net rating in these scenarios.
After discussing both the attack and the defense, there is an important status to consider that the Rockets have gone 19-16 against plus-500 teams. That may not seem great, but it is very good. It is even the third best record in the West and the fifth best record in the competition against plus-500 teams.
Only the Thunder (27-8) and Lakers (19-15) are better in the West, together with the Cleveland Cavaliers (24-8) and Boston Celtics (21-11) in the east. The Lakers continued on the basis of beating the rockets in a fun game on Monday evening.
Jalen Green has the rockets ascending in his last 10 games:
🚀 25.8 ppg
🚀 6.3 RPG
🚀 4.5 APG
🚀 9-1 recordHe has Houston who leads the race for number 2 in the Western Conference! pic.twitter.com/CWY1I4N6T0
– NBA (@NBA) March 31, 2025
Will Playoff matter inexperience?
The only players on the rockets with remarkable Playoff experience are Fred Vanvlet, Steven Adams, Jeff Green and Dillon Brooks.
Vanvlete won a championship with the Raptors in 2019 and Jeff Green received a ring in 2023. Adams once went to the conference final and Brooks was part one Playoff series victory.
None of Sengun, Green and Thompson have a postseas experience to look back on is certainly important. There is almost always a transitional ritual to make a deep play -off run and they will do very well to play the way they have been there before.
Moreover, an opponent of the first round could be one of the wolves, clippers or Warriors, the best and worst that could happen to this team.
On the one hand it will be an extremely difficult matchup to get out. Edwards and the Wolves are fresh from a conference final that last season run, the clippers look better every day while Kawhi Leonard returns to form, and the Warriors with Jimmy Butler in the mix have seen a completely different team.
On the other hand, a Playoff series against that type of opponent is exactly what the growth of this young team could accelerate in the long term.
